Advanced Applied Geology

Advanced Applied Geology

Dust hazard modelling using BRT&GLM algorithms- a case study: Isfahan province

Authors
Foroohe kafi 1
mojgan entezari 2
Rahman zandi 1
1 Department of Physical Geography Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan
2 university of Isfahan
10.22055/aag.2026.51777.2561
Abstract
This study investigates dust storms as a major environmental hazard in arid and semi-arid regions, focusing on Isfahan Province, Iran, during 1995–2021. The main objectives were to identify the key driving factors, evaluate their relative importance, and produce a dust hazard zonation map. Dust events were extracted from synoptic station data using standard weather codes and horizontal visibility criteria, and classified into three intensity levels. The highest frequencies were observed at Ardestan, Isfahan, and Natanz stations, while Daran and Kabootarabad recorded the lowest occurrences.
A set of climatic (precipitation, mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed), topographic (Topographic Wetness Index), and surface variables (geology, land use, soil, NDVI) were prepared in a GIS framework. Multicollinearity was tested using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF < 5), confirming statistical reliability. Variable importance analysis (Mean Decrease in Accuracy) identified maximum wind speed as the most influential factor, followed by precipitation and relative humidity.
Two models—Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM)—were applied for hazard mapping. Evaluation using ROC and AUC indicated better performance of BRT (0.727) compared to GLM (0.616). The final map shows higher dust hazard in the eastern and southeastern parts of the province, while western areas exhibit lower susceptibility.
Keywords
Dust and sandstorms
machine learning
BRT
Isfahan province
Subjects
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Advanced Applied Geology
Volume 16, Issue 1
Spring 2026
Pages 132-152