بازنگری تحلیل‌های خطر زلزله اهواز با توجه به وضعیت گسل اهواز

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه صنعتی خاتم الانبیا(ص) بهبهان، بهبهان، ایران

2 دانشکده صنعت و معدن، دانشگاه یاسوج، چرام، ایران

3 گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه صنعتی خاتم الانبیاء (ص) بهبهان، بهبهان، ایران

4 گروه عمران، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران

چکیده

در استاندارد 2800 و همچنین اغلب اسناد و تحلیل‌های خطر لرزه‌ای انجام شده، شهر اهواز منطقه‌ای با خطر لرزه‌ای متوسط گزارش شده است. پیشینه موجود از لرزه خیزی منطقه نیز مؤید این مطلب است. این اسناد و اطلاعات با وضعیت گسلی منطقه که خصوصاً در سال‌های اخیر بهتر شناسایی شده است هم‌خوانی چندانی نشان نمی‌دهد. این عدم تطابق در برخی مطالعات متأخر نیز دیده می‌شود. در این مقاله "بررسی جامعی" از لرزه خیزی منطقه اهواز در حوزه تحلیل خطر احتمالی زلزله ارائه شده است. بر اساس نتایج این مطالعه و با توجه به عبور گسل فعال اهواز با طول بالای 100 کیلومتر شواهد موجود از زلزله مخرب گذشته در منطقه، به نظر می‌رسد بازبینی اساسی در خطر زلزله شهر اهواز ضروری است. تحلیل خطر زلزله تعینی بیشینه شتاب تا حدود g0.66 را برای بازه زمانی نامشخص، تحلیل خطر احتمالی بیشینه شتاب g0.16 تا g0.29 را برای زلزله طرح و g0.33 تا g0.61را برای زلزله شدید می‌دهد. به این ترتیب پیشنهاد می‌شود که برای تأمین ایمنی شهروندان، شهر اهواز در زمره شهرهای با خطر بالای لرزه‌ای لحاظ شود. این مطالعه پرانتزی در زمینه خطر زلزله شهر اهواز باز کرده است و عبارت "بررسی جامع" با توجه به نبود زیرساخت‌های اطلاعاتی زمین شناسی لازم ناقص است. برای رسیدن به نتایج قابل اعتماد‌تر و بستن این پرانتز با لحاظ مسائل مالی، اکیداً توصیه می‌شود که در این زمینه‌ تحقیقات زمین شناسی و ژئوفیزیک دقیق‌تر با تمرکز بر روش‌های تفصیلی پارینه لرزه شناسی و با تأکید بر تعیین دقیق مشخصات گسل اهواز صورت گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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