Modeling the effects of climate change on the groundwater resources of Golgir Plain, Khuzestan, Southwest Iran, using the GMS model.

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Authors

1 Associate Professor of Hydrology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Department of Geology ,Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz

2 Graduated from Geology Department, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz

3 Professor of Hydrogeology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Department of Geology, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz

Abstract

Climate change, changing nutrition rates, increasing demand, and reduced access to water can lead to reduced usable water reserves. In order to investigate the impact of climate change on groundwater resources, Golgir Plain was chosen. In this study, the output data of the General Circulation Models HadGEM2-ES under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were downscaled on the data of the synoptic station of Masjid Suleiman using the LARS_WG6.0 model, and the results It was evaluated for temperature and rainfall parameters in the base period of 2003–2021 and the future period of 2022–2040. T The average annual precipitation reduction percentage under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios in the future period compared to the base period was estimated at 5.2%, 9.6%, and 12.6%, respectively. In order to investigate the effect of climate change on the groundwater resources of Golgir Plain, the MODFLOW model was calibrated and validated over a period of ten years. Applying rainfall and temperature values to the groundwater model under three RCP scenarios indicates a decrease in the groundwater level of the Golgir aquifer in the future due to climate change. So, in the RCP8.5 scenario, the Galgir Plain aquifer will have a more critical situation than in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, with a drop of 6.7 meters. The general results of this research show the necessity of managing the exploitation of underground water resources in Golgir Plain to prevent water supply problems in the future.

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Main Subjects

Advanced Applied Geology

Articles in Press, Corrected Proof
Available Online from 05 June 2024

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