بررسی لرزه خیزی مکران در جنوب شرق ایران قبل و پس از زمین لرزه 2011 دالبندین پاکستان با بزرگی 7.2

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه زمین شناسی، دانشکده علوم، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران

2 گروه آمار، دانشکده علوم، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران

چکیده

در سالهای 2011 تا 2013 چند زمین‌لرزه بزرگ در ایالت لرزه‌زمین‌ساختی مکران (ایران و پاکستان) اتفاق افتاد. فاصله زمانی کم رویداد این زمین‌لرزه‌ها در یک زون زمین‌ساختی می‌تواند بیانگر درهم‌کنش آنها باشد. در این مقاله، درهم کنش زمین‌لرزه 2011 دالبندین پاکستان و زمین‌لرزه‌های 2013 سراوان و گوهران در مکران در جنوب شرق ایران، با محاسبه تغییر تنش کولمب مطالعه شد. نقشه‌ها و نیم‌رخ‌های تغییر تنش نشان می‌دهند که زمین‌لرزه‌های سراوان و گوهران در محدوده‌های افزایش تنش روی داده‌اند که حاکی از تاثیر مثبت زمین‌لرزه دالبندین بر تحریک حوادث مذکور می‌باشد. جهت کمی نمودن میزان تغییرات سطح لرزه‌خیزی، پارامترهای آماری شامل b-value، نرخ لرزه‌خیزی و تغییرات زمانی انحراف استاندارد موضعی (lsd) گرادیان پارامترهای لرزه‌ای در یک دوره 10 ساله (5 سال قبل و بعد از زمین‌لرزه دالبندین) محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان دادند که نرخ لرزه‌خیزی ایالت لرزه‌زمین‌ساختی مکران بعد از این حادثه بطور قابل توجهی افزایش یافته است. نمودار تغییرات زمانی پارامتر lsd نیز در زمان رویداد زمین‌لرزه دالبندین کاهش نشان می‌دهد که بیان‌گر افزایش نرخ لرزه‌خیزی در منطقه است. بیشترین میزان کاهش پارامتر lsd (افزایش سطح لرزه‌خیزی) دو سال پس از زمین‌لرزه دالبندین اتفاق افتاده است. در مجموع نتایج این تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که زمین لرزه دالبندین شروع یک دوره فعال لرزه‌خیزی در زون فرورانش مکران است که اوج فعالیت دوره فعال با تاخیر دو ساله در سال 2013 و رویداد زمین‌لرزه‌های بزرگ اتفاق افتاده است.

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